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Amazing Tropical Weather Site

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deluxestogie

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Mike's Weather Page

The site http://www.spaghettimodels.com displays live weather related maps of tropical weather. It's amazing. There are dozens of maps of every sort, all live-linked.

(The two maps shown below will likely go dead on this FTT post as soon as hurricane Matthew is over.)
14L_tracks_latest.png


last48hrs.gif


There are maps of probable storm path, tidal surges, rainfall, wind speed, temperatures, and a bunch more.

Bob
 

deluxestogie

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There are a number of worrisome aspects to this hurricane. First, the ocean (sea surface temperature anomaly, or SSTA) temperature is higher than it should be at this time of year. In the image below, the color black is average ocean temperature. As it goes from red toward yellow, the SSTA is elevated 2.5 to 3.0ºC above normal.

20161005HurricaneMatthew_STA.JPG


The second worrisome feature is the current state of high level (steering) winds. It presently appears that the center of hurricane Matthew, once it finally moves off the coast of the US, may pass directly into the region of highest SSTA, which may once again strengthen the storm, and then has the possibility of looping again to the south and then the west. So it may boomerang, and strike south Florida a second time.

20161005HurricaneMatthew_UpperLevelWinds.JPG


These are from https://earth.nullschool.net/ with various options selected.

Bob
 

Cigar

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very nice info {maps} whats crazy I dont recall every seeing a hurricane "boomerang" before? Ive seen them change course fast but not circle around to say.



cigar
 

deluxestogie

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I'm not aware of any that made landfall, went out to sea, then circled around to strike the same general area a second time. But they do make loops. Below (highlighted in white) is Ophelia, from 2005. The map shows hurricane tracks for the past 50 years.

Ophelia2005.jpg

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/?redirect=301ocm

Where a hurricane goes has little to do with the storm, and a lot to do with the upper lever winds.

Bob
 

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Thats very strange..if the latest models are correct? {hour ago} then they say chance for this hurricane to "reverse course" about same area were Ophelia made the loop on that map?? very interesting stuff.
 
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