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HURRICANE '' IRMA ''. has me worried,

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Chicken

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first of all let me say '' hi '' to a lot of old timers on here,,,, ive not posted in a good hot minute, but i been looking, just not much posting,,,, my year was a flop at growing. [ bad seed ] i made a mistake and ordered seed. from bad places,, and after the 3'rd reorder and attempt... i scratched it. ,,,, i got a couple going that im gonna seed out, and prepare for next years grow,

and i built a real nice curing barn, last year for this years grow, and it sit's empty, this is the first time ive ever been '' burnt '' because of bad seed,,, plus i had planned to start late on purpose, being in florida ive allways thought you could do 2 grows,, because of the long season, so i did some experimenting, but it wasnt a complete failure.. i experimented with a different technique. to start a lot of plants at once. and it worked out real good. so next year i'll have my starting shelves full of seedlings all at once,
.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................

..now about this hurricane,,, this thing has had me concerned for a while now,,,,and today the '' preditions '' are just what i was worried this thing may do... '' COME RIGHT UP MY ASS ''... it's not my first rodeo by far,,, but i got a feeling this '' bull '' is gonna be pissed... when it gets close to me,

............................................................................................................................................................................................

another side note ; i slipped in here today to order me some of dons bacca, be good my friends, and i hope all the new growers this year.. are having major sucess,,, and allready looking forward to next years grow,
 

deluxestogie

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Pennsylvania State University provides access to a gazillion (count them, one gazillion) weather models, both short and mid-range. Below is a model run on Hurricane Irma, at 204 hours into the future.

HurricaneIrma_204H_EWall.JPG

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_12z/mrfloop2.html (click to animate)

This is pretty far into the future, but is a sobering possibility for NJ, DE, PA, NY, and into New England.

Caution: put on your solar eclipse glasses, before going to the Penn State main E-Wall.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html

As for more reliably close predictions about Irma's course:

Irma_2017090300_EuroGFS_Ensemble.jpg

Euro Ensemble from http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

Irma_2017090306_GFS_Ensemble.jpg

GFS Ensemble from http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

Quite a bit to think about.

Bob
 
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Chicken

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yep..... first time i can think of in a long time,,,, if ever,,,, that all the '' spaghetti '' models are saying the same thing,
 

SmokesAhoy

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Hey chicken glad to see you're still around! Those bad seeds wouldn't be called TA and a number would it?

Well stay safe!
 

Chicken

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Hey chicken glad to see you're still around! Those bad seeds wouldn't be called TA and a number would it?

Well stay safe!

i should have stuck with '' north woods '' but i bounced around and figured id give some other small business. in seed distribution some money.... i mean you know you got trouble. when you drop a 100 seed packet in 3 trays.. and only 5 actually make it.. out of 100...

but hey.... lesson learned, and if i do order which im sure i will.... i'll be keeping my business with NORTH WOODS.
 

deluxestogie

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This is going to be a BIG hurricane.

The trend for all the spaghetti models is drifting more westward for now. We are looking at about 7 to 9 days out. The strength is forecast to remain a major hurricane, at least for the next 5 days. It may rake the Atlantic coast, cruise the length of Florida, or even cross over into the Gulf and head to who knows where.

Anyone in these broad regions, may want to follow the spaghetti models for the next few days, until there is greater certainty as to where Irma is headed.

For a quick glance on Mike's Weather Page,
  • go to http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
  • look at the second column from the left
  • scroll down to the two ensemble model maps (with white background) that look like this:
    Irma_MikesWeatherPage_modelEnsembles.JPG
(Notice that Florida is--at the moment--completely obscured by all the spaghetti!)

Bob
 

burge

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On the weather here they were taking about how consistent this storm seems to be. Hopefully it will not stall like it did in Texas.
 

deluxestogie

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It's still too early to say for sure how or if Irma will impact Florida, but the Euro and GFS models are converging over the entire length of the peninsula. Florida is now within the 5-day cone from the NHC.

Irma20170804_1700EDT_5day_cone.jpg


Irma2017090412_Euro.jpg

Euro model

Irma2017090412_GFS.jpg

GFS American model

Most models predict that this will approach the continental US as a CAT 4 storm.

Bob
 

Chicken

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just a while ago. the governer decalered all 67 counties of florida to be under a state of emergency. were still a couple a days out. tomorrow i'll start getting my water jugs full... and my 350 gallon resivour,, [ just in case ] my greenhouse went thru matthew pretty good... and i got some new plastic for it. for next year. so i'll be watching that to see if it gets lifted off, when i made it.. i made it to take the wind,, and tidy up the yard. i got stuff laying everywhere. that ill proablly store under the house,,

park my semi in a big open parking area,,,, and if it comes thru at night... i'll have a air horn.. and multiple battery powered lights,,, and be in the yard. on tree watch,, my family knows if that horn goes off to hit the yard running. 1 long steady blow. run out the front door... 2 seperated blows come out the back door, i wont be evacuating i live inland.... and not on the coast... im right in the middle... 60 miles to the right is the atlantic.... 60 miles to the left is the gulf,

the last good wind we had.... had my 60' sycamore tree in the front yard doing a hula dance... the top was twisting one way. and the bottom was going the other way....

i'll take down my confederate flag. and store it properlly till the wind stops,,

...
 

BarG

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Do be prepared Chicken, I t wouuld really suck if you were cut off and surrounded by flood and devastation. I wish you well my friend heh heh., I hope she misses you. (The hurricane lol)
 

BarG

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My wife has been giving me hell for not volunteering my skills and such thus far in south Texas a hundred miles away but all my family were fine. I think she would like me to be a contractor again, who knows.
 

Chicken

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My wife has been giving me hell for not volunteering my skills and such thus far in south Texas a hundred miles away but all my family were fine. I think she would like me to be a contractor again, who knows.

dont you worry about that.. the younger generation is stepping up there,,,, it's thier '' time '' to do some framing.. roofing.. tree work.. clean-up... and all types of other things involved in a hurricane / flood clean-up... you sit back and relax old man.. youve done your part to '' make this country '' even if it was small compared to the whole picture, it was a contribution,, as have i and still do.. to keep the food chain moving.. i do my small part.. by delivering the fertilizer,
 

deluxestogie

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The last NHC advisory stated that Irma is now a CAT 4 storm, and will likely continue to strengthen.

NHC said:
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

Of course, it's got a long way to go yet.

Bob

EDIT: Projection from tropicaltidbits.com for 144 hours from now:

Irma20170904_2100EDT_144Hours.JPG
 

BarG

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dont you worry about that.. the younger generation is stepping up there,,,, as have i and still do.. to keep the food chain moving.. i do my small part.. by delivering the fertilizer,

you got that right, I am fairly impressed. Still watch out for a bad one heading your general direction.
 

Chicken

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The last NHC advisory stated that Irma is now a CAT 4 storm, and will likely continue to strengthen.



Of course, it's got a long way to go yet.

Bob

EDIT: Projection from tropicaltidbits.com for 144 hours from now:

Irma20170904_2100EDT_144Hours.JPG

if you put a dot. on the top left part of the # 9 ...... thats where im at,
 

deluxestogie

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Mike, from Mike's Weather Page (www.spaghettimodels.com), in a live discussion this evening, stated that by late Friday or early Saturday (Sep 8-9), we will know when the hurricane actually turns North, and the prediction cones will be something that you can use for deciding if you need to evacuate from Florida.

Bob
 

Chicken

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nope,,,, shes coming right up the middle of our state,,, perhaps entering at the keys and going straight up. the whole state will be affected... depending on the predectied wind speed will determine what i do,

if my elder parents want to evacuate.. i'll go with them just so i can keep a eye on them. ironic.... at the beginning of next year i plan on putting a new metal roof on my house... i may not have a choice to do that soon.. if it blows off what i got right now, or worse if a tree falls on my place,?????

IT'S GONNA BE BADDDDDDD
 

ChinaVoodoo

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Consider the birds though with that metal roof. I was in a place once, and the magpies hopping around hunting bugs or whatever drove me nuts.
 
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