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Heads up! Where and when the Chinese space station will crash.

deluxestogie

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#1
Whew! Thank goodness. We now know when and where the Chinese space station careening out of control will strike Earth. It's presently about 1/2 the altitude of the ISS.

"Tiangong-1 is currently predicted to reenter the Earth’s atmosphere around April 3rd, 2018 ± 1 week."
http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/tiangong-1-reentry/



It's over 30 feet long x 10 feet wide, and weighs around 9 tons. It is most likely to come down exactly in the area marked in yellow (see below), though it might come down exactly in the green area. You guys in the blue are good.



Some of it will burn up (might be interesting), and some of it will strike exactly where they are saying. So, look up on April 3rd, 2018 ± 1 week (no time specified).

Bob
 
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#7
Whew! Thank goodness. We now know when and where the Chinese space station careening out of control will strike Earth. It's presently about 1/2 the altitude of the ISS.

"Tiangong-1 is currently predicted to reenter the Earth’s atmosphere around April 3rd, 2018 ± 1 week."
http://www.aerospace.org/cords/reentry-predictions/tiangong-1-reentry/



It's over 30 feet long x 10 feet wide, and weighs around 9 tons. It is most likely to come down exactly in the area marked in yellow (see below), though it might come down exactly in the green area. You guys in the blue are good.



Some of it will burn up (might be interesting), and some of it will strike exactly where they are saying. So, look up on April 3rd, 2018 ± 1 week (no time specified).

Bob
That Earth looks pretty flat to me.
So, I'm not too worried at this stage - there's half a chance chance that it might land somewhere around the bottom side (where it's far too dark to grow baccy).
 

deluxestogie

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#8

deluxestogie

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#10
That's a nice one, Marc.

EDIT: I just noticed that if you bring up both of the live tracking pages, they show Tiangong-1 in different parts of the world simultaneously. Hmmm.
 
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deluxestogie

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#12
On that particular graphic, the dotted lines are present orbit and previous orbit. If it lands on your house, be sure to post some nice photos on the forum, before the men in black swoop in a carry it all away.

Bob
 

deluxestogie

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#14
"Tiangong-1 is currently predicted to reenter the Earth’s atmosphere around April 1st, 2018 20:30 UTC ± 8 hours."

That computation is from this morning's data. Translated to US East Coast (EDT) time zone (UTC-5), that would be between 7:30 am on Easter, to 11:30 pm EDT. It's moving so fast, becoming so wobbly and tumbly, and the atmosphere is so irregular at its present orbit, that I doubt anyone will be able to predict its actual re-entry until it happens.

Bob
 

deluxestogie

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#15
Tiangong-1 is currently predicted to reenter the Earth’s atmosphere around April 1st, 2018 23:53 UTC ± 7 hours.

23:53 UTC = 6:53 pm EDT, so between Easter day 11:53 am EDT and Monday 1:53 am EDT.

satview.org say 12:42 am Monday on the US East Coast.

Bob
 

deluxestogie

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#18
It's a urologic problem. The sun has a weak stream.

European Space Agency said:
A high-speed stream of particles from the Sun, which was expected to reach Earth and influence our planet’s geomagnetic field, did, in fact, not have any effect, and calmer space weather around Earth and its atmosphere is now expected in the coming days.

This means that the density of the upper atmosphere, through which Tiangong-1 is moving, did not increase as predicted (which would have dragged the spacecraft down sooner) and hence the ESA Space Debris Office has adjusted the predicted decay rate.

http://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2018/03/26/tiangong-1-reentry-updates/
 
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